A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
